Solar Cycle 25¶
Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019. It is tracking above initial predictions and is relevant to every propagation measurement in this dataset — the higher the sunspot number, the more favorable conditions on the upper HF bands.
This page tracks cycle position using monthly SSN and SFI averaged from
solar.bronze (GFZ Potsdam / SIDC data, backfilled to 2000).
Cycle Position¶
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Monthly SSN | — |
| 12-Month Smoothed SSN | — |
| Cycle 25 Start | December 2019 |
| Estimated Peak | — |
| Months Since Cycle Start | — |
| Predicted Peak SSN (NOAA) | 137 |
| Actual Peak SSN (so far) | — |
Coming soon — requires monthly SSN aggregation query.
Monthly SSN and SFI — Solar Cycle 25¶
Monthly averages from solar.bronze. Smoothed SSN uses a 13-month
centered running mean.
| Month | Monthly SSN | Smoothed SSN | Monthly SFI | Smoothed SFI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — |
Coming soon — requires monthly solar aggregation query.
Cycle 24 vs Cycle 25 Comparison¶
Month-by-month comparison at the same point in each cycle. Cycle 24 peaked at SSN ~116 (April 2014). Cycle 25 comparison starts from December 2019.
| Months Into Cycle | Cycle 24 SSN | Cycle 25 SSN | Cycle 25 Ahead/Behind |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — |
Coming soon — requires cross-cycle comparison query.
IONIS Prediction Accuracy Over the Cycle¶
Pearson correlation between IONIS predictions and measured WSPR SNR, grouped by 6-month intervals. Higher solar activity generally improves prediction accuracy on upper bands.
| Period | Avg SSN | IONIS Pearson | RMSE (sigma) | Sample Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — |
V20 production model trained on data through 2025. Correlation metrics computed on held-out test sets.